The Long View

Idiot with a Tripod - a short film

Film made by Jamie Stuart during the New York Blizzard earlier this week. Written, shot, edited, produced within 24 hours. Who said great stuff takes a lot of time? Best wishes, and instant inspiration, for 2011.

‘Here you have’ e-mail worm spreads quickly

 Security experts warned Thursday of a fast-spreading e-mail worm, the first large outbreak of this type in nearly a decade.

The worm appears in e-mail messages with the subject “Here you have,” and contains what seems to be a link to an Adobe PDF file. In fact the link takes the victim to a Web page hosted on the members.multimania.co.uk domain that then tries to download a screensaver (.scr) file. If the user agrees to installing that file, he is then infected by the worm, which mails itself to his e-mail contacts.    

Found on: KurzweilAI » News • Image by Zeb.

Real music from a virtual choir

Watch the Aurora

Solar eruption on 1 August 2010

Following a major solar storm on Sunday, some fallout may be seen from Earth, not just from the higher altitudes, but even lower down, in the shape of Auroras on 3 and/or 4 August 2010.

More information on the Spaceweather site. You can watch the solar eruption movie on the NASA site.

Left brain, right brain, and complexity

Image found on mootblog.

At the heart of this post lies a simple idea. 

The idea that the complexity that envelops our lives today is an asset, and not a liability. And that it is up to us to seize the day, as it were, and use the extraordinary resources of the 21st century that go way beyond anything that was dreamed possible even 25 years ago to create a richer and the richer, more diverse, and, quite conceivably, a more just world.

For this to happen, though, a few collective paradigm shifts must take place.

1. Stop viewing complexity as complication. This is a relatively easy one, at least to talk about. Complication has to do with how we experience complexity when we are afraid of it and worried that we can't see the end of the tunnel. Complexity is, like the sun, the sky and the clouds. Complication is the added layer of our emotional experience of complexity and our instinctive recoil from the additional thinking strain complexity puts on us. The thinking strain comes in part from the fact that indeed, we cannot cope with complexity if we don't use the right tool. And so far, since the dawn of the industrial age when we strated making the world more complex, we have mostly handled complexity with the wrong tool, i.e the left brain. But now, the world's complexity has outfoxed our left brains. We need to start thinking different, to quote no one in particular.
2. Accept that we can build on complexity with right brain activities. Left brain activities will try to dissect it and it will exhaust itself at the task and surrender in frustration: complexity becomes complication. While sounds suspiciously like the previous paragraph, there is one big difference: the vantage point and the value judgment that comes with that vantage point. For many people until today, right brain stuff is for arty people, not real men. Our schools teach us mathematics, reasoning, science, chemistry, even history in analytical, linear and sequential terms. However, as the world is increasingly telling us itself, it is non linear, patterned and parallel and requires synthetic, creative and big picture approaches from the next generation.
3. Create an educational system that is up to dealing with the challenges of the 21st century (and the points mentioned above). They are huge, diverse, and complex and therefore require huge, diverse and simple approaches to solve them. The way our Western type educational systems are set up tend to create dysfunctional people unable to master the skills required for the new age. 
4. Understand that we are inextricably a technological society, and that, as such, we must embrace technological evolution and not fight it. There is much to dislike about the technification of the world. But there was much to dislike about the agricultural world order with its short life spans, hard labour and poor living conditions and there was much to dislike about the industrial age with its labour exploitation, ruthless taylorism (Ford example) and smog pollution. So on the whole, I believe, we are much better off this century than at any other time in history.

Therefore, right brain thinking, a new type of education and creative use of available technologies will produce a radically different world that what we have known. 

And here again, the process is not linear. Like in any major societal endeavour there will be (and there are already) many dissenting voices, many (legitimate) concerns and a few luddite resistors. In the societal evolution process of the coming 25 years, many will feel left out, many will be left out for fact and many will fight.

I don't think that it will hugely impact the change process that we are experiencing. Because of its inherent diversity and non linear evolutionary process, the upcoming century will be hugely more resilient than any preceding age. It can include the resistors, the nay-sayers (as well as the overzealous) and will take on a life of its own. 

Once again, the collective will be bigger than the individual. Individualism comes from left brain thinking. The sense of belonging, of being part of a bigger something that underpins and guides our existence is, in my mind, right brain stuff. 

However, I would not like to create the impression of a new dichotomy where left is bad and right is good (although all our Western languages do already convey that impression…). I also do not want to glorify the right brain over the left brain or to castigate the history of the past 250 years since the beginning of the enlightenment (the rise of the left brain).

I see more of the third phase of a dialectic movement whereby the 21st century will use the whole mind - both left and right brain functions equally well and as mutually completing and complementary (if not complimentary) tools. In order to achieve that, we need to resolutely refocus the left-brainers of this world towards the opportunities that the more powerful usage of our intellectual resources can contribute to our understanding of the world (left), the creation of the next generation world (right) and the powerful integration of the new concepts and realities (left and right).    

Now let's think about that creatively, in a more complex way.

Life redefined

Although not everyone might agree, we live in exciting times at the tip of an exponential technology development curve. And we also live in the Middle Ages.

Never in the human history has change happened so fast, so relentlessly and so creatively. To the casual observer, not much seems to change other than the shape of cars, the increased use of mobile phones, computers and other media toys. We still live in houses built a century or two ago, eat and drink and sleep and suffer human stuff, go to work and go to bed.

But look closer, and you will notice that under the surface a new civilisation, and, potentially, a new conception of life, is being groomed. The new era is defined by complexity, data management, dematerialisation and redefinition of points  of reference and barriers previously considered as absolute.

The essence of life in itself is being redefined in three important areas:

The advent of synthetic life: This week the papers were full (and rightly so) with the announcement of the creation of the first artificial living cell. This redefines the frontiers of life, of civilisation and of what it means to be human, in a not dissimilar fashion to how the atomic bomb consolidated humanity's capacity of destroying itself – just at the other end of the spectrum, and in much more complex ramifications. The Bomb was achieved by physicians, which places it squarely in the paradigm of the past century. The synthetic cell is designed by biologists - the complexity bearers of our century.

The gradual convergence of life and machine: Ray Kurzweil defines the Singularity as the melting of the boundaries between man and machine and he predicts the sigularity for about 2040. The exponential evolution of computing power will certainly contribute to reshaping the world in a way that is still not fully understood. The synthetic cell mentioned above was made possible by computers, and computers will regulate every single other aspect of human life for each individual from the cradle to the grave to the extent that they will turn into indispensable life enhancers and brain extensions. in case you are smiling (or crying) at the prospect: we should never forget that computers have been around for less than 50 years - and in evolutionary terms they are in their infancy, really. 

The Water challenge: No life without water - I have mentioned it before - and this week the Economist carries a long report on water management. While water was no real issue until 30 or 40 years ago, the recent doubling of the world's population, along with the economic development of the middle classes in emerging (and populous) economies are quickly turning water into one of the hot topics of the century. The need for safe drinking water for 9 billion people (2050), and even more the related industry and agriculture will turn this commodity into the most coveted resource of the coming generations. Not least because there is a finite amount that is readily available (about 97% of the earth's water is sea water, not easily usable - and desalination remains a technological challenge). In particular India and China are heading for a water disaster and we are just beginning to understand some of the geopolitical implications. Water management is likely to emerge as one of the major skills for the next twenty years. The pressure to provide sufficient and safe drinking water to their populations will reshape politics and recast power balances across the globe.

The management of synthetic life (with its opportunities and risks), the unpredictable outcomes of the ongoing information revolution and the relentless need to sustain life in its most basic form is transforming how we see and describe ourselves at breathtaking speed.

Our grandchildren may well deem us as archaic as we consider the Middle Ages.

The Third Billion

via www.strategy-business.com

Strategy+business publishes a study on the third billion: women in emerging economies (after the first and second billion: China and India). The research considers that these roughly 870 million women will enter the mainstream economy by 2020.

Some of the factors that will contribute:

• Increased urbanisation
• Better educational opportunities
• Gradual evolution of cultures and customs
• Infrastructure investments that will support greater mobility

The article also outlines some multiplier effects that would accelerate the process:

• We are not talking of one country only - but about women across a large section of the emerging markets
• Economically active women will tend to have fewer children and so they can lead more independent lives
• Women are better savers than men.

Sounds just about right for what the world needs…

Whole Earth Discipline

Stuart Brand has written a remarkabe book. 

Whole Earth Discipline, An Ecopragmatist Manifesto. Footnotes and excerpts on a special website.

It flies in the face of much conventional wisdom and deserves to be talked about at length.even better, read it, thnik about it, then read it again.

Here the main thrust:

Cities are green. By 2050, 80% of the world's population will live in cities. That is good news because cities typically carry a lower carbon footprint per inhabitant than rural areas. Also, rural space will be freed up for nature restoration projects.

Nuclear energy is green. Alternative energies will be incapable of ensuring the baseload energy requirements of the coming decades. And even if they did, it would come at a huge cost. Clean coal is anything but reality. Nuclear has the power to generate enough electricity for the electric transport society. Nuclear is safe. There has not been a single nuclear accident nearly 25 years (also compare to Chinese coal mines).

GM (or GE) food is green. Agriculture has been about genetic modification since Day One. GM crops simply increase the speed of evolution and are more selective and exceedingly precise about which traits of the crop are modified. GM crops allow to reduce the use of pesticides and other harmful agricultural methods.

Geoengineering may well become a major civilisation shaper of the coming years and, who knows, its potential saviour.

You may not agree. Initially, I was skeptical about the nuclear bit. It now looks a lot more enticing and I will do some research around this. 

Increasingly, though, it looks like the old Green Movement is fighting a bit of a rear guard battle in the face of climate change and our other little challenges.

Stuart Brand has written a remarkable book. I will read it again.

Asia rising

Major demographic, economic and cultural changes are afoot. We all know it.

But few have a more compelling way of presenting past and projected future evolutions than Hans Rosling. Here his prediction that Asia will overtake the West in 2048. On 27 July, to be exact.

Silent blog

 

This blog, as some of you have duly noted, has been unduly silent.

This is not because I lost interest, on the contrary. The idea of exploring what will happen to us over the long term, from a bird's perspective, appeals to me more than ever. The silence did also not come about because I was so extraordinarily busy. (Note to self: I was, of course, but that cannot be the excuse, I am afraid.)

Somehow, there has been an anecdotal touch to some of the posts, as someone unwittingly put it to me. And I realised that the red thread that was meant to underline and underlie the entire project had worn somewhat thin. Or at least invisible to some of the readers, including myself.

The entire idea of this blog was to aim for the bigger picture view and put perspective into the massive change process that is surrounding us, and for many, engulfing us. Change in itself has no value attached to it. Change is neutral. It's what we make of it, what we put into it, how we cope, and how we communicate that makes the difference.

At the same time, our Big Change leaves about 80% of the world population indifferent. (Or worse off.)

Therefore, I am in the process of rethreading the project.

So, thank you for commenting on the silence. It tells me that you care, which is encouraging.

Thank you also for hanging around. The new decade will be exciting, and we will have lots to talk about.